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Pakistani 10 years property cycle

Pakistani 10 years property cycle
Economic cycles

Economic cycles are famous worldwide and are used by economists to predict the future of economy. These economic and empire cycles were derived by famous scholar Ibn Khaldun. The biggest question is what these cycles are, are they real or what is the philosophy behind these cycles?

Economic cycles are definitely real. When something is at bottom, the only direction that can move is upward and vice versa. In property we can say when property prices are record high, the only direction property prices can move is downward and vice versa.

One complete property cycle

Things to observe in the property cycle, or how property cycle works:

Property price peak is followed by price crash or correction

Price crash is followed by price stagnation

Price stagnation is followed by gradual price rise

Gradual price rise is followed by peak price, and another cycle starts

10 years real estate cycle in Pakistan

Every country has real estate cycles and these cycles have different time period. But in Pakistan property cycles are of 10 years. Pakistan property market was at peak in 1995. After 10 years we saw another peak in 2005. Similarly we saw third peak in 2015-2016. So according to these trends we will see next property price peak in 2025-2026.

Global property price trends

Every country has real estate market that has its own fundamentals and works on certain patterns but one thing is for sure that every country’s property market is connected to global property market. When one country’s property market crashes we see global property crash. Many people know that due to credit crunch every country saw property price crash in 2008. Same is true now as we can see property prices crashing in Dubai, UK, India, Pakistan, Europe and many more countries.

New Year property predictions

Everyone is busy in predicting the future trends as we have entered 2017. Many property gurus have predicted real estate price trends. Some are bearish and some are bullish. But what intrudes me is the prediction by one of greatest economist of USA who is predicting 90% property price crash in USA, which will have worldwide effects. Hope it’s just a prediction otherwise Pakistan property market will face bloodbath. I personally wish for stagnant property market in Pakistan that will corrects itself according to new taxes.

Pakistan property tax 2016

(30) Comments

  1. I am a pakistani living in europe. Certainly we pakistanis are becoming more greedy and think that we only can make money through property in pakistan and middle class and poor people in pakistan are suffering. But it is not because of ordinary people it is because of corrupt governments and corrupt mafias (property mafia included). Mostly property prices in pakistan are even higher than western countries nowadays. We need steady jobs, real growth and basic health, living and education facilities for every pakistani, like in europe where most of even poor people are also happy because they get these facilities and mostly they are not greedy as like some of us. One big german business man was asked by a american journalist that why are you paying nearly 50 percent of your income in income tax is this not unfair and he strongly and angerly replied that i dont like to be a rich man in a poor country but i would rather like to be a poor man in a rich country. Problem is not with a ordinary pakistani people, problem is with a corrupt mafias in our country from top to bottom. When every one in pakistan will receive basic living requirements there would be less greed and we would not see bad things which are happening in our country daily. I think author of this site is a patriot pakistani and his views are balanced and near a reality. Pray that one day any massiah or pakistani people will stand and a day will come in our country that every rich and poor will become happy and equal citizens of pakistan and they will received basic human dignity and requirements.


    on   said 

    GULSHAN E MAYMAR, KARACHI under FBR category 4,

    Price of 240 square yard open plot in Sector T was 61 lac at the beginning of December 2016….and as on today……Rs. 66 Lac plus

      Karachi is better performing as people have increased asking price
      Lahore and Islamabad are not different in term of increasing the asking price
      But unfortunately its hard to find buyer for properties in Lahore and Islamabad.

      After discussion with estate agents in Lahore and Islamabad,
      General perception is positive
      But no major break through
      Owners are increasing the asking price
      But properties are unable to attract buyers

      ESTATE AGENTS IN LAHORE & Islamabad are living on rental income
      Yes sale of small & cheap properties is high

      • muhammad anwar

        on   said 

        u r right ghar 47,
        there is no sale n purchase in market, however, prices are going highy, I do not know y this happening, there is no crash in price in market of isb, rwp, rates of properties are going high n high
        for ur coments

        • Muhammad Anwar
          Fully agree
          Asking prices are increasing in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad but no increase in sale volume.

          But few projects in Gwadar or overall Gwadar properties have good market.


        on   said 

        TO YOUR SURPRISE, there are buyers to buy as ASKING PRICE of sellers in Gulshan e Maymar, and, Sadi Garden, Scheme 33 Karachi…..but……still deals are not being confirmed

        Bahria Town Karachi, Precinct 16, 250 yard plot……own money was 20 lac a month ago….and as on today…..own money is 27 lac…..and both sale & purchase is going on… price stagnant in this area too

        it is really hard to understand why this is happening

  3. muhammad azeem uddin

    on   said 

    thank you ghar 47 showing real picture. always rise and rise this can not possible. it is out of business ethics. stock market and property market must be CRASH but when? it need patient !!!

      • Asad

        on   said 

        When Looters are your Rulers, public must be begging no matter how big is the business…..

        When water mafia stop city karachi water supply for a month and sell water tankers and earn 1 billion rupees then you can think of Pakistan Future in every business….

        • Asad
          Pakistan has many problems
          But only politicians are not to blame
          We Pakistanis could not control population.
          Pakistani population in 1992 was 10 crore
          Within 25 years our population is 20 crore

          What if our population in 2042 is 40 crore?

          High population is declining our living standards

          We as a nation should consider population time bomb equally destructive like corruption.

  4. Farheen fatima

    on   said 

    Ghar47 always disappoints me. Everyone is telling positive picture of property market but ghar47 is always negitive. Be positive ghar47 and say what we want to listen. Say what others are saying that all is fine.
    I am selling my flat in bath island since last 10 months but cant sell it only because of ghar47. Shame on you. Livd and let others to live.

    • Farheen Fatima
      We at GHAR47 are just guarding you so that you don’t make any decision in haste. We have no personal interest in crashing the property market.

      It sorry to listen that you could not sell your flat. Bath Island in expensive area and it will take time to sell your flat.
      Fear not hope for best.

  5. Sohail sindhi

    on   said 

    I am have property estate in Clifton. We are increasing asking price as owners want to sell at high price. But no deal in last 2 months. My agency is surviving on rental income only.

    • Sohail Sindhi
      Same is true for Lahore and Islamabad. Market will take some time to stabilize. Estate agents that are genuine realtors are not worried as they have lot of work. But agents that are now investors are desperate.

  6. Uzma uk

    on   said 

    Its true property fall in one of the developed country is followed by other countries. Even in UK experts discuss property cycles on BBC.

  7. Sher khan

    on   said 

    I am in dubai and have family in europe. I can tell that property prices are falling in dubai even sfter desperate efforts of kingdom to hold. Europe econmy and oroperty is also falling. It can be TRUMP effects lol.

  8. Ibrahim

    on   said 

    I am estate agent in Karachi. Yes people are asking high prices and feeling is that property price is on rise. I just sold 3 property in December and all were under 1 crore rupees. I cant sold property in dha Karachi and bath island

    • Ibrahim
      Small and cheap properties are selling like hot cakes but its really hard to find buyers for expensive or high end properties. Same is true in DHA Lahore.

  9. iftikhar

    on   said 

    I request you to check your facts before making any prediction , I am karachi and as far as i know its still part of Pakistan . there is no decline in Prices i quote examples that houses/flats are still selling in prices greater then were in November and December so there is no crash what so ever .

    • Iftikhar
      The rise in price is due to higher asking price. Can you tell me the price on which properties are actually sold out?

      I am not making predictions but just quoted someone predicting 90% property crash in USA that will have worldwide effects.

      • iftikhar

        on   said 

        one property 120sq yards sold 13000000 gulshan block 10, friend bought a plot in maymar 400 sq yards 84 lakh . while I appreciate your patience and prompt reply which I regard is a great service I just want a make a point that what is happening at the moment on ground .

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